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Forecasting

2016 Energy Forecasters Meeting

June 02, 2016

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From May 18 to 20, 62 energy forecasters representing 42 companies from across North America gathered in Scottsdale, Arizona to discuss the latest issues in energy forecasting.  The meeting included two pre-conference workshops focused on the Statistically Adjusted End-Use modeling technique at both the introductory and advanced levels.

For two and a half days, forecasters worked through 17 industry presentations covering the following topics.
  • The state of the U.S. and Canadian economies
  • Updated trends from the EIA’s 2016 Annual Energy Outlook
  • Recent growth trends and forecast model accuracy
  • Weather normalization techniques and trends
  • Solar (photovoltaic) penetration and shape forecasts
  • State of the electric storage market

Two round table discussions allowed participants to deeply discuss recent “hot” issues within the industry as well as detailed peak modeling issues.
With so much information being disseminated, I cannot adequately summarize each presentation.  Instead, let me share with you a couple of my highlights.
  • Matt Owens of STEM, Inc., presented on the state of the electric storage market.  With so much media surrounding Tesla’s battery and the general public’s interest in batteries, I appreciated the inside look at the state of the technologies, the available products, and the economic benefits.  The next time someone asks me about batteries, I am now prepared to discuss the state of the market.

  • Adam Kamin from Moody’s Analytics updated me on the state of the U.S. and Canadian economies.  I’m never disappointed with the economic outlook presentation.  This time, I gained insights into the latest employment and housing trends, which are expected to drive our economy forward.

Share with us your highlights from the conference.  We look forward to hearing from you.

By Mark Quan

Principal Forecast Consultant

Mark Quan is a Principal Forecast Consultant with Itron’s Forecasting Division. Since joining Itron in 1997, Quan has specialized in both short-term and long-term energy forecasting solutions as well as load research projects. Quan has developed and implemented several automated forecasting systems to predict next day system demand, load profiles, and retail consumption for companies throughout the United States and Canada. Short-term forecasting solutions include systems for the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) and the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). Long-term forecasting solutions include developing and supporting the long-term forecasts of sales and customers for clients such as Dairyland Power and Omaha Public Power District. These forecasts include end-use information and demand-side management impacts in an econometric framework. Finally, Quan has been involved in implementing Load Research systems such as at Snohomish PUD. Prior to joining Itron, Quan worked in the gas, electric, and corporate functions at Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), where he was involved in industry restructuring, electric planning, and natural gas planning. Quan received an M.S. in Operations Research from Stanford University and a B.S. in Applied Mathematics from the University of California at Los Angeles.

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